One year ago, expectations for the global economy were generally positive: a slimmed-down continuation of the reflationary theme experienced in 2020 resulting from pent-up demand, robust fundamentals, and constrained supply. Decent nominal GDP growth of around 6.5% was the consensus for 2022, with a relatively even amount of real growth and elevated, but moderating, inflation driving this forecast. Labour markets were anticipated to tighten further, adding pressure on global central banks to recalibrate highly accommodative monetary policies.
